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Reinhart C.M., Kaminsky G.L., Goldstein M.A. Forecasting financial crises: early warning signals for emerging markets

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Reinhart C.M., Kaminsky G.L., Goldstein M.A. Forecasting financial crises: early warning signals for emerging markets
Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1996. — 150 p.
This study analyzes and provides empirical tests of early warning indicators of banking and currency crises in emerging economies. The aim is to identify key empirical regularities in the run-up to banking and currency crises that would enable officials and private market participants to recognize vulnerability to financial crises at an earlier stage. This, in turn, should make it easier to motivate the corrective policy actions that would prevent such crises from actually taking place. Interest in identifying early warning indicators of financial crises has soared of late, stoked primarily by two factors: the high cost to countries in the throes of crisis and an increasing awareness of the insufficiency of the most closely watched market indicators.
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