Hamulczuk Mariusz. Essential econometric methods of forecasting agricultural commodity prices

Institute of Agriciltural and Food Economics, National Research Institute, 2013. — 185 p.This publication was prepared as a contribution to the research on the following subject: Economic modelling in the analysis of competitive growth of agri-food sector within the framework of the research task The forecasting system aimed at increasing the competitiveness of the agri-food sector
The aim of the study was to present selected econometric models which can be applied for forecasting of agricultural commodity prices.
The aim of the book is to present possibilities of analysis and forecasting agricultural commodity prices on the basis of quantitative methods. On the one hand it can be done with the use of time series models on the basis of the patterns observed in the past prices. On the other hand model base on causal relationships with other phenomena in the economic system can be employed. Practical application of above methods raises a lot of questions concerning data availability, identification of the most important factors determining the level of agricultural prices, the choice of suitable model or extrapolation of the patterns and relationships into the future. So the advantages and limitations of commonly used forecasting models have to be known.