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Wright G., Cairns G. Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future

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Wright G., Cairns G. Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future
Palgrave and Macmillan, 2011. — 193 p. — ISBN: 9780230271562
We would like to acknowledge the support and contribution of a number of people to our work and thinking in developing this text. First, we thank Paul Goodwin for checking the sense of our simplified quantitative option appraisal format in Chapter 6, and acknowledge his contribution through earlier joint publications. Ron Bradfield provided us with sources of information as we wrote, and has contributed to our thinking on scenario method over a number of years. Martyna S´ liwa worked with us in developing the concept of the critical scenario method (CSM) that we set out in Chapter
5. We must acknowledge the contribution of Kees van der Heijden to our early understanding of scenario method during the time that we worked with him at Strathclyde University, UK.
In developing our thinking, we have drawn upon the earlier work of a number of scholars. In relation to scenario methods, we have been informed by the writings of Pierre Wack and Paul Schoe- maker in particular. In developing our thinking on the integration of stakeholder analysis, we have drawn upon the thinking of Ed Freeman. Our integration of stakeholder analysis into a framework for considering issues of power, business ethics and social respon- sibility has been further informed and inspired by the writing of Bent Flyvbjerg.
Whilst all these people have contributed to our thinking in devel- oping this text, we must take personal responsibility for the final print – in particular, any omissions or errors that we have allowed to creep in.
Why should the individual and organization practice scenario thinking?
Working with scenarios: introducing the basic method
Incorporating stakeholder values and facilitating critique of scenario storylines
Understanding stakeholder viewpoints.
Augmented scenario approaches: delving deeper and stretching wider
Scenarios and decision analysis
Creating robust strategies and robust organizations
The backward logic method of constructing extreme scenarios
Diagnosing organizational receptiveness
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