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Rosen J. The future role of renewable energy sources in European electricity supply: A model-based analysis for the EU-15

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Rosen J. The future role of renewable energy sources in European electricity supply: A model-based analysis for the EU-15
Universitätsverlag Karlsruhe, 2008. 249 p. — ISBN: 978-3-86644-215-3.
Contents
Contents
Glossary of Figures
Glossary of Tables
Nomenclature
Introduction
Motivation
Objective and methodological approach
Power generation in the framework of the European electricity markets
Liberalisation of the European electricity markets
Investment decisions and aspects of strategic planning
Investment needs in the European electricity sector
Specific characteristics of strategic planning in the electricity sector
Climate change policies
Supply of energy carriers
Use of nuclear power
Renewable energy sources
Renewable electricity generation in Europe
Utilisation of renewable energy sources
Rationale for increasing the utilisation of renewable energies
External effects and related costs
Security of supply
Requirements for future energy supply
Political framework for electricity generation from renewable energy sources
Available resources for renewable electricity
Mid-term potentials for renewable electricity in the EU-15
Renewable electricity production costs
Incentive schemes for renewable electricity producers
Primary support measures
Feed-in tariffs
Quota obligation with tradable green certificates
Auctioning system
Secondary support measures
Investment subsidies
Fiscal Incentives
Harmonisation of European renewable electricity promotion
Integration of renewable energy sources into electricity supply
Availability and production characteristics of renewable electricity generation
The special role of wind energy
Characteristics of the wind resource
Prediction of wind power production
Technical implications of fluctuating power generation
Interactions with conventional power generation
Grid interactions
Adaptability of the generation system
Conventional reserve capacities
Energy storage
Pumped storage
Other energy storage options
Economic and ecological evaluation of RES-E integration
A hybrid modelling concept for the analysis of renewable electricity integration
Levels and tasks for utility planning
Existing approaches for decision support in capacity expansion planning
Existing approaches with a focus on renewable power production
Market simulations based on cost-resource curves
Model-based approaches for the analysis of effects from fluctuating electricity production
Specifications for a modelling approach to analyse increasing renewable electricity generation
Realisation of the modelling concept
Simulation of fluctuating renewable power production
Outline of the developed AEOLIUS dynamic simulation model
Exogenous input data
Forecast module
Heuristic approach for power plant scheduling
Costs and emissions
Simulation applications
Substitution of existing generation by wind power integration
Calculation of efficiency losses induced by wind power fluctuations
Development of an optimising energy system model to assess the integration of renewable electricity
Evolution of optimising energy system models as the precursors of the developed PERSEUS-RES-E model
Outline of the developed modeling approach
Mathematical description of the model
Structural elements, parameters, and variables of the model
System of equations for electricity generation and CO2 certificate trading
Objective function
Constraints
Emission trading scheme
Utilisation of renewable electricity
Targets for renewable electricity use
Financial incentives for renewable electricity use
Restrictions of possible renewable energy expansion rates
Conditions for system reliability
Critical reflection of the chosen modelling approach
Underlying market concept and behaviour of market players
Investment and disinvestment decisions in the model
Price elasticity of electricity and heat demand
Price information based on system marginal costs
Structure and data basis of the energy system model
System boundaries and geographical scope
Time horizon and temporal resolution
Structure of model regions
Modelling and parameterisation of transmission grids
Conventional electricity generation
Fuel supply options and fuel prices
Technology data
Expansion options
Renewable electricity generation
Resources and costs of renewable electricity generation
Financial incentives for renewable electricity generation
Fluctuating renewable electricity generation
Hydropower feed-in
Wind power feed-in
General framework conditions for the scenarios
Electricity demand and load structure
CO2 emission allowances and certificate trade
Discount rate
Implementation and analysis options
Model-based analysis of the role of renewable energy sources for electricity generation in the EU-15
Definition of a reference scenario
Evolution of the European electricity system in the reference scenario
Structure of power generation and of the capacity mix
Interregional power exchange
Marginal costs of power production and of CO2 emission abatement
CO2 emissions and emission allowance trading
Evolution of the European electricity system in the scenarios
Definition of the scenarios
Influence of CO2 restrictions
Influence of the natural gas price
Influence of promotion schemes for renewable electricity utilisation
National targets in 2010 plus cumulative EU-wide target in 2020
EU-wide targets in 2010 and in 2020
Financial incentives
Cost effects of an increased renewable electricity utilisation
Influence of fluctuating renewable electricity production
Reserve requirements
Efficiency losses
Influence of restrictions and technological barriers for renewable energies
Conclusions
The developed modelling approach for analysing renewable electricity utilisation in the EU-15
Conclusions from the model calculations
Evolution of the European electricity system and the market for CO2 emission certificates Renewable electricity use under different framework conditions interactions between renewable and conventional electricity generation and the CO2 certificate market
Outlook: Further research considerations and possibilites for future model developments
Amendments to the model data basis and expansion of system boundaries
Consideration of new technical solutions and technological progress
Geographical focus and technology focus
Coupling with methodologically different modelling approaches
Summary
Abbreviations
References
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